Betting on Algorithms
When something monumental happens in the charts, we look for meaningful interpretations or fundamentals. The buying spree that erupted in cryptocurrencies this past week was not buoyed by anything economic, and neither was there any relevant development in legislation/regulation to push crypto’s forward. So, what was the big crypto surge all about?
As Bloomberg reports, the surge in Bitcoin was likely triggered by automated software that was set up to execute a US$100 million Trade across 3 exchanges – this according to Oliver von Landsberg-Sadie of London-based crypto firm BCB Group.
"Some people are in the camp where algorithmic trading is a manipulative device, and others are of the view that they are a way to make markets more efficient," von Landsberg-Sadie said. "I am definitely of the second view. "
In this age of supercomputing and complicated trading platforms, buyers and sellers have placed so much of their faith in technical confirmations. In the crypto sphere, we have witnessed the rapid rise of algorithmic crypto traders to 17 since the 4th quarter of 2018. These algo or quantitative funds account for more than 40% of crypto hedge funds and relay their buy and sell executions based on technical analysis and confirmations. To note, Bitcoin and Ethereum both broke above their 200 DMAs (Daily Moving Average), and that sparked a technical buy for most crypto traders.
Of course, the biggest market surprises this week is Bitcoin, which had Bitcoin bulls celebrating but left many analysts scratching their heads as the world's most famous digital asset hovered around the US$5,000 mark, where it had reached for the first time this year. Does this signify the return to the glory days of crypto?
While cryptocurrencies rally, some are still looking for a reason. George Harrap, CEO at Bitspark is still putting things “on pause” and is on a wait and see attitude till clear reasoning is satisfied.
One of those reasons circulating right now from some trading desks and social media is a sizable block of expiring puts to cover shorts made by traders who had stop-loss orders around the US$4,200 level. Another one of those explanations is that the US Securities and Exchange Commission had approved Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds – but this was all fake news in line with April Fools and was quickly taken down by some online news sites that syndicated the story.
The most enlightening explanation so far reverts back to the one given by Landsberg-Sadie, CEO of BCB Group. That this was indeed a coordinated algorithmic buy order that was executed simultaneously in 3 major crypto exchanges – Coinbase and Kraken both in the US, and Bitstamp based in Luxembourg.
"There has been a single order that has been algorithmically-managed across these three venues, of around 20,000 BTC,” he said. “If you look at the volumes on each of those three exchanges – there were in-concert, synchronized, units of volume of around 7,000 BTC in an hour”.
So indeed, there was a monumental event with the buy order. Yet no solid fundamental story backs it up. Given this development, consider the surge to be short-lived.
Like any technical consideration without strong macroeconomic fundamentals, consider this buy a glitch on the trading screen. Or less likely, some trader's accidental fat finger.
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